Experiments with the Improved Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation over South China     

马蕴琦  任福民  贾莉  丁晨晨 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(2):139-153

In recent work, three physical factors of the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation (DSAEF_LTP model) have been introduced, namely, tropical cyclone (TC) track, TC landfall season, and TC intensity. In the present study, we set out to test the forecasting performance of the improved model with new similarity regions and ensemble forecast schemes added. Four experiments associated with the prediction of accumulated precipitation were conducted based on 47 landfalling TCs that occurred over South China during 2004-2018. The first experiment was designed as the DSAEF_LTP model with TC track, TC landfall season, and intensity (DSAEF_LTP-1). The other three experiments were based on the first experiment, but with new ensemble forecast schemes added (DSAEF_LTP-2), new similarity regions added (DSAEF_LTP-3), and both added (DSAEF_LTP- 4), respectively. Results showed that, after new similarity regions added into the model (DSAEF_LTP-3), the forecasting performance of the DSAEF_LTP model for heavy rainfall (accumulated precipitation ≥250 mm and ≥100 mm) improved, and the sum of the threat score (TS250 + TS100) increased by 4.44%. Although the forecasting performance of DSAEF_LTP-2 was the same as that of DSAEF_LTP-1, the forecasting performance was significantly improved and better than that of DSAEF_LTP-3 when the new ensemble schemes and similarity regions were added simultaneously (DSAEF_LTP-4), with the TS increasing by 25.36%. Moreover, the forecasting performance of the four experiments was compared with four operational numerical weather prediction models, and the comparison indicated that the DSAEF_LTP model showed advantages in predicting heavy rainfall. Finally, some issues associated with the experimental results and future improvements of the DSAEF_LTP model were discussed.  相似文献   

Experiments of DSAEF_LTP Model with Two Improved Parameters for Accumulated Precipitation of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over Southeast China     

秦思  贾莉  丁晨晨  任福民  约翰·L·麦克布莱  李国平 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(3):286-296

The Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model for landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) precipitation (DSAEF_LTP) utilises an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for the forecast track, while the precipitation forecast is obtained by finding analog cyclones, and making a precipitation forecast from an ensemble of the analogs. This study addresses TCs that occurred from 2004 to 2019 in Southeast China with 47 TCs as training samples and 18 TCs for independent forecast experiments. Experiments use four model versions. The control experiment DSAEF_LTP_1 includes three factors including TC track, landfall season, and TC intensity to determine analogs. Versions DSAEF_LTP_2, DSAEF_LTP_3, and DSAEF_LTP_4 respectively integrate improved similarity region, improved ensemble method, and improvements in both parameters. Results show that the DSAEF_LTP model with new values of similarity region and ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_4) performs best in the simulation experiment, while the DSAEF_LTP model with new values only of ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_3) performs best in the forecast experiment. The reason for the difference between simulation (training sample) and forecast (independent sample) may be that the proportion of TC with typical tracks (southeast to northwest movement or landfall over Southeast China) has changed significantly between samples. Forecast performance is compared with that of three global dynamical models (ECMWF, GRAPES, and GFS) and a regional dynamical model (SMS-WARMS). The DSAEF_LTP model performs better than the dynamical models and tends to produce more false alarms in accumulated forecast precipitation above 250 mm and 100 mm. Compared with TCs without heavy precipitation or typical tracks, TCs with these characteristics are better forecasted by the DSAEF_LTP model.  相似文献   

2019年河南淅川ML 4.2地震震源深度测定     

郑培玲  付靖  万娜  高家乙  贾漯昭 《地震地磁观测与研究》2022,43(3):33-37

采用震源深度测定的确定性方法（PTD）和震源机制CAP反演法,对2019年11月30日河南淅川丹江口水库发生的M_L 4.2地震进行分析,重新计算了此次地震的震源深度。结果表明,2种方法所得到的震源深度基本一致,均约为7.0 km,与中国地震台网中心统一编目结果（7.1 km）相差不大,此结果可能表明地震监测台网相对较好的情况下,用不同方法测得的震源深度相差不大。  相似文献   

黑龙江省地震行业网通信系统组网优化研究     

方瑶  王卓  胡越  贾军 《防灾减灾学报》2022,38(2):73-80

  相似文献   

剪切屈服型可更换耗能梁的抗震性能研究          下载免费PDF全文

熊礼全  陈晓健  贾真  李林燕  梁永清  门进杰 《世界地震工程》2022,38(4):065-71

针对传统结构震后修复能力不足,带可更换构件的混合框架结构体系在地震作用下,可更换耗能构件集中损伤和耗散地震能量,保护其他构件不损伤或轻微损伤,更换损伤的耗能构件,即可实现结构预定功能震后可恢复。通过3个可更换耗能梁试件,研究其抗震性能。在此基础上,通过SAP2000有限元建模,对带可更换构件的混合框架结构进行非线性分析,研究整体结构体系的屈服机制、承载力和可更换耗能构件的可更换性能。结果表明:试件均发生剪切屈服型破坏,破坏特征包括腹板－加劲肋焊缝撕裂、腹板屈曲和腹板撕裂。各试件的滞回曲线非常饱满,具有优异的承载能力、变形能力和耗能能力;在地震作用下,带可更换构件的混合框架结构体系中各构件能够实现良好的有序屈服机制,可更换耗能构件具有较好的可更换性。  相似文献   

基于Vulcan软件的山东莱州留村金矿区三维建模及资源量估值北大核心CSCD     

贾飞  胡跃亮  王永锋  张姗  柏瑞  周荣志  王俊洁  刘艳 《地质与勘探》2022,58(1):12-23

留村金矿位于山东莱州市城区西南12 km的留村断裂带上,是发育于古老变质岩中的小型石英脉型金矿。为深入研究该矿区地层、构造与矿体在地下的延伸分布情况,加快后续数字化矿山建设,山东黄金集团应用Vulcan矿业软件对矿区开展三维地质建模。在收集相关地质实物资料的基础上,通过建立地质数据库、数据转换、地质解译等系列功能操作建立了矿区地表、岩体、构造及矿体模型,并对其进行任意剖割划分,实现了矿区地层岩性、地质构造、矿体的三维可视化,促进了本区矿体赋存规律的研究以及三维空间的成矿预测。同时利用软件强大的数据处理功能对资源量进行估值,本次估值的金资源量为1984.18 kg,与原详查报告中提交的金资源量2009.34 kg误差仅为1.25%。经估值后的每个矿块段都被赋予了精确的资源量数据,为后续矿山采矿设计与排产计划提供了准确的数据支撑,助力实现数字化、智能化矿山建设。  相似文献   

全球氦气勘探开发进展与利用现状          下载免费PDF全文

贾凌霄  马冰  王欢  于洋  徐佳佳  陈静  邢佳韵 《中国地质》2022,49(5):1427-1437

【研究目的】 由于氦气具有独特的物理特性,在科学研究、医学和高科技行业的用途越来越广泛。寻找更多的氦气资源,满足市场需求,是地质行业的责任。【研究方法】 按照统计分析原则,对全球氦气勘探成果与供需形势进行梳理、总结。【研究结果】 全球氦气资源分布极不均匀,主要氦气供应国为美国、卡塔尔、俄罗斯等。近期,许多公司开始在北美地区、俄罗斯、卡塔尔、坦桑尼亚等地开展氦气的勘探开发,其中北美部分地区的氦气资源位于富含氮气的储层中,具有广阔的开发前景,全球氦气勘探活动掀起新一轮热潮。【结论】 2021年全球氦市场出现供应缺口,当今全球氦气需求的增长开始转向亚洲和中东。建议高度重视氦气不可再生性和不可替代性,开展氦气资源潜力评价工程,勘查国内非烃类氦气矿床前景,加强国际合作,开展国内氦气储备地下空间评价与选址工作,增强中国的氦气储备能力。  相似文献   

基于Hoek-Brown的岩石横观各向同性屈服准则研究     

郑艳妮  张强  张升  贾朝军  雷明锋 《岩土力学》2022,(1):139-151

为了描述岩石强度的各向异性特征,通过引入材料的微结构张量,考虑单轴抗压强度σ_cβ随层理倾角β而变化,提出了基于微结构张量的修正Hoek-Brown屈服准则。开展不同层理倾角(0°、15°、30°、45°、60°、75°和90°)的页岩试样不同围压(0、5、10、15和20 MPa)下的三轴压缩试验,结果显示,页岩峰值强度与层理倾角β呈"U"形曲线关系,在围压较低时呈"肩"形曲线关系,弹性模量E_t和泊松比ν对围压不敏感,其平均值随层理倾角β的变化关系分别呈倒"U"形、"肩"形。页岩的微观和宏观破坏图像表明,其破坏模式受围压和层理倾角双重控制。试验值与模型预测值的对比表明,修正的Hoek-Brown屈服准则可较好地对页岩强度的各向异性进行模拟。同时,采用Koteshwar千枚岩、Koteshwar板岩、绿泥石片岩等层状结构岩石的单轴和三轴压缩试验数据,进一步验证了提出的修正Hoek-Brown屈服准则对多数具有层理结构的横观各向同性岩石峰值强度模拟具有普遍适用性,并对屈服准则在试验数据较多和较少情况下的峰值强度模拟效果进行了评价。  相似文献   

狭陡型泥石流成灾特征与防治对策研究——以阿坝州金川县刘家沟泥石流为例          下载免费PDF全文

崔华丽  杨东旭  杨栋  李元灵  贾逸  吴波 《探矿工程》2022,49(6):122-129

刘家沟位于四川省阿坝州金川县,是一条狭陡型高频泥石流沟,每年雨季,降雨激发泥石流灾害链。本文在野外调查和实地勘测的基础上,分析认为,受汶川MS8.0地震扰动,刘家沟形成流通区单位面积上松散固体物质达98.11×10⁴ m³,在409.8‰的平均纵坡降下,泥石流活动频率明显增强,泥石流沿程放大效应明显,最终形成了降雨+径流侵蚀-滑坡-堰塞体-堰塞体溃决-增大的泥石流-堵河形成堰塞湖-卡撒沟中、下游损害的灾害链。提出采用格宾石笼进行固坡护床,结合拦挡坝拦粗排细的作用,根据保护对象设置防护堤,优化排导槽与主河交汇条件的综合治理措施,可为小流域高频狭陡型泥石流灾害的治理提供参考。  相似文献   

液动潜孔锤用于干热岩钻进的优化与试验          下载免费PDF全文

王跃伟  李宽  张恒春  齐力强  杨泽英  薛倩冰  贾明浩 《探矿工程》2022,49(6):36-41

我国目前能源结构对化石燃料依赖度过高,在全球能源转型的大环境下,作为一种新型清洁能源,干热岩具有储量巨大、资源丰富、分布广泛等优势。针对干热岩勘探开发中高温硬岩钻进的技术难点,对YZX178型液动潜孔锤进行了结构优化,并在某干热岩井中进行了试验应用。试验结果证实了YZX178型液动潜孔锤用于干热岩等坚硬地层进行冲击回转钻进的可行性和高效性,获得了与螺杆钻具接近的机械钻速,且具有节能环保、安全性高、维护方便、节约成本、高温适应性强等优势,但仍需进一步解决其工作寿命与牙轮钻头相匹配的问题。  相似文献